Big mistake the Democrats are making about US election

The Democrats are making a huge mistake in the 2024 US presidential election, leading strategist James Carville has cautioned.

Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville cautioned Democrats against falling into a false sense of security as polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading the race against former President Donald Trump.

Echoing many of the private concerns of Ms Harris’ allies who feel the polls are a bit more “rosy” than the reality, Mr Carville stressed on Real Time With Bill Maher that she will have to work harder to win the Electoral College.

“I challenge Democrats with some caution here. First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up. Well, that’s actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct,” Mr Carville said.

Democratic strategist James Carville has cautioned Democrats against falling into a false sense of security. Pictured is Kamala Harris at the DNC. Picture: AFP

“The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls,” Mr Carville added.

Ms Harris is currently polling ahead of Mr Trump nationally by less than two points, according to a Real Clear Politics Average, however, the former president is leading in several battleground swing states. The polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Ms Harris leading by 3.6 percentage points, the New York Post reports.

Traditionally, with Mr Trump on the ballot... Democrats say, ‘Oh James, you’re a Debbie Downer.’ I’m not. I’m just telling you, you got to win by three,” the strategist added.

In late August 2020, national polls predicted that President Biden was up by 9 points over Mr Trump — but he won by just 4.4 percentage points.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Picture: AFP

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 6.5 points in polls. She famously won the popular vote by 2 points — but lost the Electoral College.

Perhaps most alarmingly for Democrats, back in 2020, Mr Trump outperformed polling in most battleground states including by 4.6 points ahead of RCP’s aggregate in Wisconsin, three points in Michigan, and 1.3 points in Pennsylvania.

Additionally, RCP’s polling aggregate of battleground states — which doesn’t allow for toss-ups — currently has Mr Trump winning all up but one battleground state, netting him an Electoral College victory. However, pollsters have long stressed that polls within the margin of error could go either way.

Ms Harris has billed herself as the “underdog” in the race. Mr Trump previously told The Post that, “she should be the underdog because she did such a bad job,” when pressed about whether she actually is trailing him.

Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, a Harris-aligned Super PAC publicly stated her firm’s own internal polling is “far less rosy” than many of the public polls out there.

“It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, who works at the Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, told Politico.

Other recent polls have shown a slight edge for the former president, including one done Friday by Rasmussen Reports that had Mr Trump ahead 49% to 46%.

The polling numbers are expected to shift once again after independent Robert F. Kennedy, who was polling at 4% according to Rasmussen, dropped out of the race on Friday and endorsed Mr Trump.

While Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling, the conservative-leaning firm was among the closest firms to the final result in 2016.

Ms Harris has been keen to avoid making the same mistakes that Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 cycle when she faced off against Mr Trump and infamously ignored Michigan and Wisconsin during the general election cycle.

She’s also largely eschewed talk of gender politics like Ms Clinton, and worked to maintain a comparatively brisk itinerary in the swing states.

Democrats have been largely pleased with Ms Harris’ public attitude of casting herself as the underdog and taking the threat of Mr Trump seriously.

Mr Carville is widely credited for his role in former President Bill Clinton’s victorious 1992 presidential bid.

This story was published by the New York Post and republished with permission

Originally published as Big mistake the Democrats are making about US election