Labor faces big miss on green energy target: modelling

Labor will fall well short of a pledge to reach 82 per cent renewables by 2030, even under a best-case scenario, according to new modelling.

Wind farms near Portland in Victoria’s southwest.

The Albanese government will fail to hit its target of 82 per cent renewables by 2030 with green energy only reaching 65 per cent by the end of the decade even under a best-case scenario, Rystad Energy modelling shows.

The energy consultant said the 17 per cent shortfall will be compounded by infrastructure bottlenecks and longer supply wait times which will hamper the rollout of renewables and energy storage, significantly affecting energy security for Australians.

While a Labor electoral win would see Australia add a record 7.2GW to its grid annually of both renewable energy and gas, that would still leave a gap by 2030 of 15GW-20GW of wind power.

Renewables accounted for 46 per cent of electricity in the grid in the last quarter of 2024, according to figures from the Clean Energy Regulator, meaning the nation must double that share in the next five years to hit its target.

If the Coalition prevails in a May election, the country’s renewable energy share is expected to be even lower due to the party’s focus on nuclear power and broader uncertainty on energy policy, making the 82 per cent target an even more distant goal.

Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen. Picture: Jeremy Piper

“A LNP victory would likely lead to a reduction in solar and wind power deployment, but by how much is the key unknown,” Rystad noted.

Peak business groups have raised concerns Peter Dutton’s nuclear energy plan could trigger an investment freeze in the energy sector, cruelling plans to roll out new-generation capacity before the Coalition’s nuclear plans are realised.

Chiefs in the infrastructure and energy sectors earlier in February cautioned Labor’s 82 per cent green power target was unrealistic and coal-fired power stations must stay open.

However, the ­Albanese government slapped down business pleas to reconsider its renewables-only strategy and said they would be listening to “experts”.

Rystad said Australian voters will face a critical decision on polling day between Labor’s green goal or the Coalition’s proposal to build 13GW of nuclear power by 2051 to replace coal generation.

“Grid instability, power shortfalls, a looming gas shortage and infrastructure bottlenecks have created a perfect storm that could derail the country’s more immediate energy transition as energy security issues come to light,” Rystad said in a research note.

“Renewable energy adoption is accelerating at unprecedented rates, and Australia is at the forefront of a battery revolution. However, more action is urgently needed to prevent a power shortfall in the coming years. The continent’s dispatchable generation is nearing critical levels and decisions made today will be pivotal in avoiding blackouts.”

An overwhelming majority of Australians support more renewables being built, a new report from the country’s peak zero emission representative body found earlier in February. The findings showed nearly 70 per cent of respondents supported building new renewables.

Federal Labor’s capacity investment scheme would see taxpayers underwrite 32GW of capacity.

The Australian Energy Market Operator estimates the nation needs 57GW of grid-scale solar and wind generation capacity to be installed by 2030 — a rise from the current capacity of 19GW.

The Clean Energy Council’s database has 88 renewable electricity generation projects which have ­either reached financial commitment or were under construction, representing 13.2GW of capacity in the pipeline.

There were also 52 committed storage projects in development, equivalent to 10.5GW in capacity. These pipeline projects represent at least $36.5bn worth of capital investment.

Originally published as Labor faces big miss on green energy target: modelling