Coles pilfering shoppers from its big rival, Citi data shows

It’s the big shoplift – Coles is swiping market share from Woolworths and its smaller rivals, according to a new Citi shopper survey.

Coles is pinching shoppers from its biggest rival, Woolworths, the results of Citi’s survey show. Picture: Nikki Short

The latest survey of shoppers by investment bank Citi has confirmed Coles has increased its market share to strip shoppers away from Woolworths and smaller supermarket stores as it paints a perception among consumers that it has filled its aisles with cheaper food and groceries.

Last month’s reporting season pointed to accelerating sales growth at Coles that was beating that of its larger rival, with its ­superior trading performance driven by a better job on prices and perception of value.

The latest Citi survey if 1800 shoppers also found that, while inflation expectations are falling, there was continued strain on household budgets, leading consumers to eat in rather than visit cafes and restaurants – bolstering supermarket sales but denting sales for liquor retailers such as Dan Murphy’s and BWS owner Endeavour.

Citi analysts Adrian Lemme and Sam Teeger issued their August grocery and liquor survey on Wednesday, showing average spending shifting to Coles and Aldi from Woolworths and IGA. The shift away from Woolworths was most pronounced within older age groups, Citi said.

Coles was winning the most share in the over-$100,000 house­hold income group, with Aldi growing the most in the under-$100,000 cohort, it said.

“Coles and Aldi are each growing strongly in the 18-44 age group,” the report says. “Interestingly, the gap between them and Woolworths is greatest in the older cohorts, with Aldi the clear winner in the 55+ age group and Coles up the most in the 45-54 age group.

“When cutting the data by gender, average spend by males is growing across all supermarkets, but there is again a large gap between Aldi and Coles to Woolworths.

“Growth in spending by ­females is more muted, with average spend down at Woolworths.”

Surprisingly, Citi added, Woolworths extended its lead over Coles as most preferred supermarket by 3 percentage points, despite the changes in average spend and market share loss in the last two quarters.

Last month’s trading performance updates revealed a widening sales growth gap between Coles and Woolworths. For the second half of 2024, Woolworths sales rose 1.8 per cent, and for the first eight weeks of 2025 they were up 3 per cent. Coles’s June half sales rose by more than 5 per cent, and it posted sales growth of 3.7 per cent for the first eight weeks of the new financial year.

Meanwhile, the Citi shopper survey found that a slight ­majority of people expect grocery prices to rise over the next six months by 2 per cent or less.

“Customers have lowered their inflation expectations since the last survey, with 51 per cent expecting price increases of 2 per cent or less over the next six months (versus 45 per cent in the prior survey). This suggests it will be somewhat harder for suppliers to put through greater than CPI increases,” the survey said.

And although inflation might be more muted, shoppers were still looking for ways to save money at the checkout.

“There has been little change in how customers will deal with further price increases, with trading down and buying fewer products the main levers that may be pulled,” it said.

“In terms of future plans, preparing meals at home is likely to increase in popularity as customers balance their budgets.”

Liquor consumption was declining, Citi added, with consumers reducing liquor consumption due to cost and health concerns, a trend consistent across age and gender demographics.

Originally published as Coles pilfering shoppers from its big rival, Citi data shows