Vladimir Putin advisers ‘afraid’ to tell him the truth says UK intelligence director Jeremy Fleming

The director of the UK’s intelligence agency claims Vladimir Putin has misjudged the Ukraine invasion but his advisers are too scared to tell him the truth.

The head of the United Kingdom’s intelligence agency says Russian President Vladimir Putin has “massively misjudged” the war with Ukraine but his advisers are afraid to tell him the truth.

The UK’s Government Communications Headquarters director Jeremy Fleming gave a lengthy speech at the Australian National University on Thursday, targeting Russia and China.

Mr Fleming said Russia had launched an “unprovoked and premeditated attack” on Ukraine 36 days ago, describing it as shocking but not surprising.

“We saw the intelligence picture building and we’re now seeing Putin trying to follow through on his plan, but it is failing and his plan B has been more barbarity against civilians and cities,” he said.

Mr Fleming said the Russian leader played by different moral and legal rules, noting many people had been killed while others had their lives shattered, describing it as a humanitarian crisis.

But Mr Fleming went even further, suggesting Mr Putin had “massively misjudged” the situation.

“He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He over-estimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory,” he said.

“We’ve seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.

“And even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin is failing with his plans, according to the UK intelligence agency director. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev/AFP

Mr Fleming said despite the Russian Ministry of Defence stating it would drastically reduce combat operations around Kyiv and another city, it then launched attacks in both places.

“Mixed messages or deliberate misinformation – we’ll have to see how it unfolds,” he said.

“It all adds up to the strategic miscalculation that our leaders warned Putin it would be.

“It’s become his personal war, with the cost being paid by innocent people in Ukraine and increasingly by ordinary Russians too.”

Mr Fleming said the irony was Ukraine now had a renewed sense of nationhood – something Mr Putin had been trying to avoid.

He also said Mr Putin was facing problems including low morale, logistical failures and high Russian casualties.

“Their command and control is in chaos. We’ve seen Putin lie to his own people in an attempt to hide military incompetence,” Mr Fleming said.

“He seeks brutal control of the media and access to the internet, he seeks the closing down of opposition voices, and he’s making heavy investment in their propaganda and covert agencies.

“It is already a remarkable feature of this conflict just how much intelligence has been so quickly declassified to get ahead of Putin’s actions.

“Deeply secret intelligence is being released to make sure the truth is heard. At this pace and scale, it really is unprecedented.”

Residents work to clear debris from destroyed houses in Boromlya, Ukraine. The town was recently recaptured by Ukrainian forces. Picture: Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Mr Fleming further claimed Russia was using mercenaries and foreign fighters to augment its forces, including the Wagner group that has been active in Ukraine since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

“The group works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations,” he said.

“We understand that the group is now prepared to send large numbers of personnel into Ukraine to fight alongside Russians.

“They are looking at relocating forces from other conflicts and recruiting new fighters to bolster numbers. These soldiers are likely to be used as cannon fodder to try to limit Russian military losses.”

Mr Fleming acknowledged the most concerning issue for Australia and its region related to China.

He said Russia had made a strategic choice to align with China because the country had become more powerful and in opposition to the United States.

“In the current crisis, Russia sees China as a supplier of weapons, as a provider of technology, a market for its hydrocarbons and as a means to circumvent sanctions,” he said.

A man pushes his bike through mud and debris past a destroyed Russian tank in front of the central train station that was used as a Russian base in Trostyanets, Ukraine. Picture: Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Mr Fleming said with an eye on retaking Taiwan, China did not want to do anything to constrain its ability to move later.

“China believes Russia will provide additional impetus and support to its digital markets and it’s technology plans,” he said.

“We can see China is seizing the opportunity to purchase cheap hydrocarbons from Russia at the moment to meet its needs too.”

But Mr Fleming said there were risks because the two nations had some competing interests, and with China set to become stronger it could squeeze Russia out.

“A China that wants to set the rules of the road – the norms for a new global governance – is not well served by close alliance with a regime that wilfully and illegally ignores them all,” he said.

Mr Fleming further described China as a “sophisticated player” in cyberspace.

“It has increasing ambition to project its influence beyond its borders and a proven interest in our commercial secrets,” he said.

“It also has a competing vision for the future of cyberspace and it’s increasingly influential in the debate around international rules and standards.

“China’s bringing all elements of state power to control, influence design and dominate technology, if you like, the cyber and the fibre.

“Without action it is increasingly apparent that the key technologies on which we all rely on for prosperity and security won’t be shaped and controlled by the West in the future.”

Originally published as Vladimir Putin advisers ‘afraid’ to tell him the truth says UK intelligence director Jeremy Fleming